October 2004 Continued, Page 2

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Overtime--2004 and 2003 issues

This and that

Regarding Dafur

In the western region of Sudan, in the Dafur region, war continues. Killing, rape, pillage, and abduction are the order of the day.

Gwynn Thomas wrote a very good analysis of the situation for the Socialist Standard, September 2004. It’s an interesting article, if a little long and I thought about publishing excerpts from it. I decided, however, that I would lose too much if I shared only parts of it. You might want to check it out for yourself. The website is: www.worldsocialism.org/spgb. Or you can write to them at 52 Clapham High Street, London SW4 7UN, U.K.

The graying of China

For much of the last century China's communist government claimed, in the words of the revolutionary anthem: "The east is red." Now, however, it is warning that the colour most likely to be associated with the country in the future is gray. The world's most populous nation is rapidly growing old, and as a new white paper on pensions revealed this week, the demographic change could undermine economic growth and social stability unless the government takes radical steps to prepare for a wave of hundreds of millions of new retirees.

China is far from unique in worrying about its wrinkles, but it has particular cause for concern because of the speed at which it is ageing and its lack of resources to deal with the consequences. Like its neighbour Japan - the fastest ageing country in the world - and many other developed nations, China is growing old because of medical advances. These have pushed up life expectancy and increased urbanisation, which tends to encourage people to have fewer children.

But in China, extremist family planning policies have accelerated democratic change. In the 1950s and 60s, Mao Zedong encouraged couples to have babies so the country could grow bigger and stronger; by 1978, however, it was clear that this had put an intolerable strain on land and water resources, so the government made a complete U-turn by introducing the one-child policy that, with occasional modifications, has remained in place ever since.

As a result, the number of people reaching retirement age is now fast outstripping the number of new entrants to the workforce. Currently 11% of the 1.3 billion population is over 60, a proportion that is expected to rise to 25% by 2030. By some estimates, the number of elderly people will almost quadruple between 2000 and 2040, to 397 million.

In any society, this would pose huge challenges to the health, pension and welfare systems, but Chinese policy makers are alarmed that their poor country is particularly ill prepared to cope with this rich-country phenomenon. Most other nations experiencing ageing pressures are advanced economies with well-developed social security structures; China, by contrast, has yet to replace the "iron rice bowl" socialist system, which it scrapped at the start of market reforms 25 years ago. Although the economy has been surging forward at the rate of 9% per year ever since, the country's health and pension systems have steadily deteriorated.

A recent estimate by the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies showed that only 25% of the Chinese workforce was covered by formal retirement schemes. Most of those who receive benefits live in cities on the eastern seaboard, but even in these relatively affluent parts of China pension funds are in danger of drying up.

Most of the 100 million migrant workers in China are reluctant to pay into pension systems that they may not be able to transfer to their home provinces. Even those with more secure employment wonder at the wisdom of paying into a system that may not be able to pay out when they are older.

Their concerns are backed up by demographic statistics: currently three workers support every retiree, but by 2020 the ratio will have fallen to 2.5 adults for every retired person.

The pay-as-you-go system has already collapsed, forcing the government into a shift of policy. In 2000 it established a national social security fund, which tops up pension contributions from individuals, employers and the government with the proceeds of state sales of shares and listings of state companies. These pension reserves, currently worth about 140bn yuan (£9.5bn), are invested on domestic and foreign stock markets.

The government is also trying to encourage individuals to take more responsibility for their pensions. Pilot programmes that offer incentives to people who make private pension arrangements have been established in Liaoning and a couple of other northeastern provinces. Even if this is applied nationwide, it would be unlikely to pay for China's approaching old age, which will feel worse because more people are moving into the cities, where they are less likely to be able to rely on relatives for support. In the years ahead, increased urbanisation and a shrinking workforce will almost certainly force a rise in the retirement age from the current level of 60 for men and 55 for women. It is also more than likely to bring a major adjustment - and possibly even an end - to the one-child policy.
[Jonathan Watts, The Guardian (London), September 9, 2004.]

New words

This showed up at the office where I work, after bouncing around from email to email for a while. It obviously originated with the Washington Post (Washington, DC) but I don’t know when or by whom. Still, some of these are cute and I thought you might enjoy them.--L.F.

The Washington Post’s Style Invitational once again asked readers to take any word from the dictionary, alter it by adding, subtracting, or changing one letter, and supply a new definition. Here are the 2003 winners:

--Intaxication: Euphoria at getting a tax refund, which lasts until you realize it was your money to start with. --Bozone: The substance surrounding stupid people that keeps bright ideas from penetrating. The bozone layer, unfortunately, shows little sign of breaking down in the near future.

--Cashtration: The act of buying a house, which renders the subject financially impotent for an indefinite period.

--Giraffiti: Vandalism spray-painted very, very high.
--Sarchasm: The gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn’t get it.
--Inoculatte: To take coffee intravenously when you are running late.
--Hipatitiis: Terminal coolness.
--Osteopornosis: A degenerate disease.
--Decafalon: The grueling event of getting through the day consuming only things that are good for you.
--Glibido: All talk and no action.
--Dopeler effect: The tendency of stupid ideas to seem smarter when they come at you rapidly.
--Arachnoleptic fit: The frantic dance performed just after you have accidentally walked through a spider web.
--Beelzebug: Satan in the form of a mosquito that gets into your bedroom at 3:00 in the morning and cannot be cast out.
And, my favorite:
--Karmageddon: [This one doesn’t need a definition. Read your newspaper or watch the evening news.]

Palestinian young people

Tareq Natsha has just left secondary school and is about to join a growing exodus of young, middle-class Palestinians from the West Bank. They are going overseas with their families’ blessing to escape the clutches of the terrorist group Hamas. Better-off parents in cities such as Hebron, a centre of Hamas recruitment for recent “martyrdom” operations, are increasingly fearful of losing their children to the militants.

Tareq, 18, plans to move to the US, fearing that otherwise Hamas recruiters will force him to join their ranks. “More and more families are now trying to get their kids out of here to give them a chance to live in peace,” he said. “They are afraid that if they stay they may come under the influence of Hamas.”

On three sides of Tareq’s home in al-Jama are flattened blocks where the Israeli army razed the family homes of suicide bombers. In the four years of the latest Palestinian uprising, 11 young men from al-Jama have carried out suicide bombings and gun attacks.

Tareq acknowledged that Hamas had extraordinary success in secretly recruiting and persuading young middle class men to die for the cause. One was his friend, Basem Takhouri, 19, who blew himself up, along with 16 others on a Jerusalem bus a year ago.

“Basem was a quiet person,” Tareq said. “It was unexpected. Of course there is plenty of anger towards Israel over the occupation, the killings, the checkpoints, and so on. But Hamas has been able to brainwash these young men.”

Tareq’s brother Sami, 21, also plans to move to the US, following another brother, Rami, 26. Yet another brother, Basel, 27, is in France.
[The Telegraph Group (London) and Agence France-Presse, September 6, 2004.]

Number two

At some point in the next couple of decades - and exactly when is still open to debate - the US will cease to be the world’s largest economy. That distinction will go to China, which has seen extremely rapid growth in recent years. China already has the world’s sixth-largest economy and is growing so quickly that economists project it will be twice as big as Germany (currently in 5th place) by 2010.

Right now, the US alone makes up nearly a third of the world’s output. But China already produces more steel than the US and Japan combined.

And it’s not the only rapidly growing developing country. India will probably be a close third behind the US in gross domestic product by 2050. In fact, by 2025 what is known as the BRIC nations - Brazil, Russia, India, and China - combined will be half as big as the G6 nations - US, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, and Britain. By 2050, the BRIC countries will be bigger than the G6.

Goldman Sachs economists believe China will pass the US between 2040 and 2050. At the Employment Policy Foundation, economists use a purchasing power parity formula to show China surpassing US adjusted GDP as early as 2014.
[Bill Day, Express News (San Antonio, Texas), September 12, 2004.]

Overtime featured this little poem several months ago but it has been on my mind recently. I hope you can carve out a little time for yourself in the days ahead. I know I’m going to try to.-- L.F.

Time to Reflect
By W. H. Davies

What is this Life, If full of Care,
We have no Time to Stand and Stare?

No Time to Stand beneath the Boughs
And stare as long as Sheep or Cows

No Time to See, when Woods we pass
Where Squirrels hide their Nuts in Grass

No Time to see in Broad Daylight
Streams full of Stars like Skies at Night

No Time to Turn at Beauty's Glance
and Watch her Feet, how they can Dance

No Time to wait 'till her Mouth can
Enrich that Smile her Eyes Began

How Poor this Life if - Full of Care
We have no Time to Stand and Stare.

Next month: We’d love to know what you think. These are our usual classifications:

-- Open - questions, comments, tirades, etc.
-- RSVP. React to previous statements.
-- The ecology.
-- Clippings from newspapers, etc.

On the Web:
Overtime is included in the website of Socialism for a Real Labor Union at:

socialismmarxdeleonforarealunion.org/overtime.html
[Socialism Marx DeLeon for a real union]

Money. Overtime is free, but there are expenses and any help with these would be appreciated. Please make checks payable to Linda Featheringill and mail to me at 4651 West 41st Street, Down, Cleveland, OH 44109. Contributions will be acknowledged in the next issue, or you can remain anonymous if you wish.

Finances at the end of September 2004:

Beginning Balance---------------28.41 [as of august 27, 2004]

Contributions-------------------52.51
Supplies and stationary ---
Copying-------------------------36.27
Postage-------------------------35.53

Total expenses------------------71.80

Balance--------------------------9.12

Contributions: K. Hofstatter 7.70, Anonymous 4.81 & 5.00 & 10.00, S. Jeffrey 25.00.

And, to Everyone, thank you, thank you, thank you.
Linda Featheringill.